"Is the Online Course Industry Done in 2025...?"

Author

Diana Graepel
August 08, 2025

READ TIME - 8 to 10 MINUTES

"Nobody's buying courses anymore."

A friend told me the other day that she thinks the era of online courses is over, so she asked me why I'm still in this industry.

She argued that since AI these days answers any questions one may have, and anyway we're drowning in information, "the online course industry is dying, it basically has no future."

She was saying this to me when only in the previous 3 months I had purchased 3 different courses on the same topic… to improve skills I felt were needed for my work and approach it from different perspectives.

Do you think the same as my friend?

If yes, let me explain why I disagree and why I believe this perception is quite far from reality and could even become self-defeating.

What Is Indeed True: The Big Picture

Let's examine the online course industry's recent history and trends that may have led to my friend's beliefs:

  • 2020–21 Pandemic Surge: Online-learning enrollments exploded—course platforms reported considerable growth

  • 2022–23 Fatigue & "Free Info": ChatGPT enters the scene. Buyer fatigue + ChatGPT = "info is free" mindset

  • 2024 Discerning Consumers & Competitive Market: Hyper-discerning consumers caring about who they buy from, why, and what support matters

  • 2025 Relative Slump: Yes, some creators feel stalled—but overall industry revenue is actually growing

The numbers prove it:

The global e-learning market was valued at $227.34 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $740.46 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.02% (Straits Research, 2024). Industry estimates show the online learning sector will grow by 9.1% annually between 2018 and 2026.

So while individual creators struggle, the industry itself is booming. Why this disconnect?

The Deeper Analysis: Three Major Factors Behind the Confusion

My analysis—backed by others far more experienced than me—identifies three major factors contributing to these trends:

1. AI "Confusion"

AI will undoubtedly bring revolutionary changes to both jobs and business landscapes. The numbers are staggering: studies indicate that AI, automation, and robotics will shape 86% of job transformations by 2030 (World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs Report 2025, all links below).

Jobs in decline include postal clerks (↓40%), bank tellers (↓30%), data entry clerks (↓30%), cashiers, administrative assistants (↓20%) etc. Jobs that will thrive in the AI era: software architects, fintech engineers, robotics engineers, big data specialists, cybersecurity experts, blockchain developers, data scientists, renewable energy engineers and alike.

With 1.1 billion jobs set to be transformed by technology in the coming decade, estimates suggest over 50% of the global workforce will require reskilling between 2024 and 2026.

For businesses, while approximately 40% of Fortune 500 companies might not exist in 10 years due to tech disruption, 70% of business leaders say AI will deliver significant productivity gains—but only those who restructure their workflows around AI will capture this value.

Given the extent of these changes, one might conclude that the online course industry will also be heavily affected and decline. However, that would be an inaccurate conclusion.

First, online course businesses are built on an excellent* business model that is adaptable, flexible, and AI-friendly—making them actually among the least threatened industries. (*more details why it is excellent here)

Second, only certain types of courses will lose market share—primarily those offering generic information without transformation—and that's ultimately beneficial for the industry's health.

So AI may initially create confusion about the value of human-led education, but ultimately it clarifies why guided transformation remains irreplaceable. Also, AI disruption will likely force a shift from employment to entrepreneurship anyway.

2. Crowded Marketplace

"Too many similar offers" and "overwhelmed clients"?

Given how attractive the online course industry's business model is—profitable and scalable—it naturally attracts more players. This is actually a positive sign.

It becomes a threat only for generic courses based solely on information delivery, or average, mediocre courses that will indeed decline. Courses that differentiate themselves by offering clear transformations, plus practical tools like Done-For-You (DFY) elements, accountability systems, and community (cohort programs), will capitalize on market growth and gain even larger market shares.

Discerning buyers who investigate marketplace options can identify the right fit for their needs. And sometimes it may take a few mistakes to find the right courses, yet persistence pays off.

Speaking from experience: of approximately 14 courses I've purchased in the past two-three years, only two fell below expectations, with one being close to a “disaster” (ironically the most expensive one from a well-known European "guru"). Yet I learned valuable lessons from all (from the last one—what NOT to do). Even as a careful buyer, I still encountered disappointment about 14% of the time—which means you do have to have discernment and research before buying.

This leads to the next critical point.

3. Overall Trust Recession

Buyer trust is indeed declining, primarily due to a recent proliferation of low-quality courses and unethical players.

A thriving industry attracts not only more legitimate players but also bad actors. When I see questionable businesses advertising on Facebook and Instagram like legitimate companies—when any savvy buyer can tell from the first few seconds that their claims are false—it damages the entire industry's reputation.

Online trust has always been weaker since people can't know you personally. But with so many scammers operating in the digital space, not to mention deepfakes, this trust continues eroding. This means it typically takes longer to convince potential customers that you have the expertise they need.

However, this increasing consumer sophistication is ultimately beneficial for those who know they offer genuine value.

AI has lowered barriers to course creation, creating two effects: more people can create courses, but there's also more low-quality content flooding the market. If your course can't meet essential quality criteria, your market share will decline, and you may indeed need to close or dramatically improve your offering.

But here's the opportunity: if you do improve and adapt, your online course will not only avoid decline but will gain even more traction as inferior competitors fall away.

The Two Key Conclusions & Solutions For You

1. The Course Industry Isn't Dying, It's Professionalizing

Based on the analysis above, here's what's really happening: The course industry isn't collapsing—it's evolving from amateur to professional standards. The amateurs are leaving, creating unprecedented opportunities for those who understand the new rules.

Think of it as Course Industry 1.0 vs 2.0:

1.0: Information delivery, one-size-fits-all, set-and-forget courses, weak frameworks
2.0: Transformation facilitation, personalized learning paths, community-driven experiences, DFY, accountability, automation tools, AI workflows and assistants

In this mature market, standing out requires delivering genuine change and transformation. For high profitability, your course needs to be good to excellent across all aspects of the learning experience.

Essentials for High-Impact Online Courses:

1. A Clear Transformation via a Branded Framework
Your course needs a proven method—something intentional, repeatable, and designed to create real results. It's not just content; it's a transformation engine with a name and structure.

2. Designed for the Learner Experience

  • If your videos are too long, people won't find time

  • If your platform is clunky, they'll quit

  • If your language is too dense or repetitive, they'll disengage

Learning can be uncomfortable because change triggers resistance. That's why your course should feel smooth, not clunky. Make it easy to log in, navigate, and stay on track—no technical headaches, no overwhelm.

Additional differentiators in a crowded market:

  • Done-For-You (DFY) Tools: Templates, tools, and services that remove time, money, and effort barriers

  • Accountability Systems: Drive action through milestones, nudges, and gamification (excellent if you can incorporate it)

  • Faster Results/Automation Systems & Tools: Less time commitment, quicker results

2. AI Isn't Your Enemy—It's Actually One Of Your Best Differentiators

If you're building quality courses focused on transformation, AI shouldn't be able to replace you. It should make you irreplaceable.

AI can answer questions—though this requires knowing how to ask good questions and write great prompts- which is itself a valuable skill. But AI cannot offer what course creators uniquely provide: personalized guidance based on lived experience, accountability, community, emotional intelligence, adaptive teaching, and the intuition to know exactly what someone needs to hear at precisely the right moment.

I see at least:

Three pillars that make humans irreplaceable in education today:

  1. Curation over Creation: In an AI world overflowing with information, human curation becomes exponentially more valuable

  2. Connection over Content: Community and relationships matter more than raw material

  3. Accountability over Information: Systems that ensure action, not just learning

The overwhelming abundance of information creates what experts call the "Implementation Crisis"—a phenomenon where more available information actually leads to more implementation paralysis. This doesn't eliminate the need for coaching; it actually increases it dramatically.

People don't buy courses for information; they buy them for guided transformation they can't achieve alone. Quality courses continue thriving because they bridge the "Transformation Gap"—the space between knowing what to do and actually doing it successfully.

More Proof: Fellow Course Creators Whose Success Stories Prove the Point

Let me mention a few creators who aren't just surviving—they are thriving.

Marie Poulin (Notion Mastery) for example- she built a digital strategy and design company, Oki Doki, with her husband and pivoted the niche to course creators, culminating in their signature course, Notion Mastery, which generates an average of about $40k/month for the company. Below you will find a link with 61 examples of online course success stories, like hers, from 2025 alone—from very different industries and topics, the first 15 making more than $1M/year.

Finally, it is interesting to mention that in a recent study, 81% of people who changed career paths attributed it to an online course.

So as long as people exist on this planet, they will continue to need and want education in all kinds of areas.

(If I haven't managed to give you enough arguments maybe Alex Hormozi is more convincing than me! Or google! :D

So Where Does This Leave You?

Businesses that charge for "just information" will be replaced by AI tools and smarter products. Generic course creators will continue struggling in an increasingly crowded marketplace, missing the fundamental shift from content creation to experience architecture.

But for those who adapt? The future is quite bright.

People will not stop learning from each other because AI is here. Education will not stop being an interest because AI is here. Human interaction will still make the difference. People are definitely not done wanting to learn new skills from those who are ahead of them.

AI can offer information, but it's far less capable of offering transformation, observation, and appropriate intervention. It can provide soft skills and encouragement, but there's a considerable difference between getting it from a robot versus a human who's walked the path before you.

So people will continue buying courses not because they can't find free information online, but because they want to learn from someone they trust who has already achieved what they want to achieve, and they want it fast and adapted to their needs.

The best course creators are embracing AI tools to enhance the learning experience rather than just using them for basic tasks. Which means you will see more and more one-person AI-powered businesses outperforming 10-person teams (I already built 4 such assistents for my own business so far and I intend to continue…)

Here is a good reminder:

With a good 2.0 online course offer and the right strategies, systems and guidance, your chances to retire early increase exponentially. Plus you truly have nothing to lose since working on a topic that interests you and developing your skills will only be beneficial for any career path.

So the question isn't whether the online course industry is done in 2025.

The question is: Will you evolve with it, or will you let the perception of decline become your reality?

The market is growing, the opportunities are expanding, and the amateurs are leaving.

This can be your moment.

The sooner you start, the better.

Thank you for reading,

Diana

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SOURCES:

World Economic Forum The Future of Jobs Report 2025- https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/digest/

Online Course Statistics for 2025- https://whop.com/blog/course-statistics/#sources

49+ Elearning Statistics for Course Creators (2025) | AI, Future, and More- https://www.learningrevolution.net/elearning-statistics/